Short-Term Rental Cash Flow Calculator: Estimate Airbnb and VRBO Income (2026)

Before we get into the numbers, run your property through the calculator. It takes about 90 seconds. The concepts below will make a lot more sense once you've seen your own figures.

What the Calculator Is Actually Measuring

Most Airbnb income estimates online show gross revenue only. That's misleading. A property generating $4,000 a month in bookings sounds excellent until you subtract the platform fee, cleaning costs, utilities, insurance, and mortgage. The real number is often less than half.

Our calculator shows both sides. Gross in. Every cost out. What's left is your actual cash flow: the number that matters for investment decisions.

Here's the core formula:

Cash Flow = (Nightly Rate × Booked Nights) + Cleaning Fees Collected − Platform Fees − Cleaning Costs − Management − Utilities − Insurance − Maintenance − Mortgage

Each piece matters. We explain all of them below.

The Numbers Behind the Defaults

Two inputs come with pre-filled defaults. Both are grounded in recent published data, not guesswork.

Occupancy rate: 54%

The calculator defaults to 54% occupancy. This reflects US national data.

Rabbu's July 2026 Airbnb market report, which draws on AirDNA tracking of over 10 million STR listings, puts the US average occupancy at 50 to 54%. AirDNA's own 2026 Outlook Report published in December 2025 projects US STR occupancy to ease by approximately 1% in 2026 compared to 2025 levels, with mid-2025 running at 55.5% before that softening.

54% is a reasonable middle-ground starting point for the US. But it is only a starting point. Your actual occupancy will depend on your market, your property, your pricing strategy, and how actively you manage your listing. Some high-demand markets regularly exceed 70%. Some oversupplied markets sit below 40%.

Change the default to whatever your local market data shows. AirDNA and Rabbu both offer free market data tools to look up occupancy rates in specific cities.

Platform fee: 15.5%

Airbnb moved to a host-only fee model in late 2025. As of December 2025, all hosts on Airbnb pay a flat 15.5% service fee on the booking subtotal, which includes nightly rate plus any host-set fees like cleaning charges. The old split model where hosts paid 3% and guests paid 14 to 16.5% on top is gone.

This change was confirmed in Airbnb's own Resource Center in April 2026 and reported by multiple property management sources including Houst.com (May 2026) and Smoobu (August 2025).

If you use VRBO, change the default to approximately 8% (5% commission plus 3% payment processing, per TabiVista's 2026 fee analysis). If you take direct bookings through your own website, set it to 0%. Many experienced hosts use a mix of all three channels.

The Cost Side Most Beginners Get Wrong

Gross revenue is easy to estimate. Operating costs are where most beginners make expensive mistakes.

AvantStay's February 2026 revenue forecasting guide, which draws on data from over 2,300 managed properties, puts total STR operating expenses at 50 to 60% of gross revenue. That's higher than most beginners expect. Long-term rentals typically run 35 to 40%. The difference comes from three STR-specific costs that don't exist with long-term tenants.

Cleaning and turnover

You pay a cleaner after every single guest. Not once a month or once a year. If you average a 3-night stay and 54% occupancy, you're doing roughly 5 to 6 turnovers per month. At $80 to $150 per cleaning depending on property size, that's $400 to $900 a month in cleaning costs alone before you count supplies and linens.

AvantStay puts cleaning at 10 to 15% of gross revenue across their portfolio. Don't underestimate it.

Utilities

Guests use significantly more electricity, water, and gas than long-term tenants. You're also paying for internet, which is a guest expectation, not a luxury. Budget utilities conservatively. They'll vary by season and by how frequently the property turns over.

Insurance

Standard landlord insurance doesn't cover STR activity. You need specialist short-term rental insurance, which typically costs 2 to 3 times a regular landlord policy. Some platforms like Airbnb offer AirCover, but it's not a substitute for your own insurance policy. Factor this in before you calculate profitability.

STR vs Long-Term Rental: The Real Comparison

Short-term rentals can generate more gross income than long-term rentals in the same location. AirDNA data shows the average US STR host earned approximately $2,408 per month in 2025. For many long-term rentals in the same markets, monthly rent sits lower than that.

But gross income comparison is the wrong starting point. Net cash flow is the only number that matters.

Operating expense ranges: AvantStay analysis, February 2026. Platform fee: Airbnb Resource Center, April 2026. Average host income: AirDNA data via Truvi, April 2026.

The short version: STR can outperform long-term rental on net cash flow if you're in the right market, manage the property well, and run your numbers honestly. It can underperform if you're in an oversupplied market, use a property manager at 25% of revenue, and underestimate cleaning and operating costs.

Neither is universally better. The calculator tells you the truth for your specific property.

A Worked Example: $150/Night Property at 54% Occupancy

Let's walk through a complete calculation. These are illustrative numbers. Change them in the calculator to match your actual situation.

Property: 2-bedroom apartment, $150 nightly rate, 3-night average stay, 54% occupancy, self-managed, Airbnb platform, $350,000 purchase price, $1,900/month mortgage.

Step 1: Gross revenue

Days in a month: 30. Booked nights: 30 × 54% = 16.2 nights. Gross booking revenue: 16.2 × $150 = $2,430.

Step 2: Cleaning fees collected

Stays per month: 16.2 nights ÷ 3 nights per stay = 5.4 stays. Cleaning fee charged to guests: 5.4 × $75 = $405. Total gross income: $2,835.

Step 3: Platform fee

Airbnb's 15.5% applies to the booking subtotal (nightly rate revenue plus cleaning fees). $2,835 × 15.5% = $439. Net revenue after platform: $2,835 - $439 = $2,396.

Step 4: Operating expenses

Cleaning cost (5.4 turnovers × $90): $486. Utilities: $180. Insurance: $140. Maintenance and supplies: $100. Other: $50. Total operating expenses (excluding mortgage): $956.

Step 5: Net operating income

$2,396 - $956 = $1,440 NOI per month. Annual NOI: $17,280. Cap rate: $17,280 ÷ $350,000 = 4.94%.

Step 6: Cash flow after mortgage

$1,440 - $1,900 = -$460 per month.

This is a fairly typical result for a mid-range self-managed STR in 2026. The property generates solid NOI and a near-5% cap rate, comparable to a long-term rental. But with a $1,900 mortgage, the leveraged cash flow is negative. That's not necessarily a dealbreaker. It depends whether the STR income meaningfully exceeds what you'd earn on a long-term rental in the same market.

Use our long-term rental cash flow calculator to run the same property as a standard rental for a direct comparison.

What Counts as Good STR Performance in 2026?

AirDNA's 2026 Outlook Report, published December 2025, identifies the STR market as offering its best investment conditions since 2021. But "best since 2021" doesn't mean easy money.

The same report projects US STR occupancy to ease by approximately 1% in 2026 as supply grows faster than demand. AirDNA forecasts available listings growing by 4.6% in 2026, outpacing demand slightly. That means more competition in most markets.

What counts as good performance depends on your market. Some reference points from recent data:

• Occupancy above 60%: Strong. Significantly outperforming the US average. Found in well-located properties in demand markets.
• Occupancy 50–60%: Solid. At or above the national average. Typical for well-managed properties in stable markets.
• Occupancy below 45%: Underperforming. May indicate oversupply, poor positioning, weak pricing strategy, or a challenging local market.

The best-performing STR markets in 2026 according to AirDNA's analysis include coastal destinations, mountain and lake resorts, and suburban areas near major cities. Urban markets in heavily regulated cities remain mixed, with some showing recovery and others constrained by licensing caps.

Lodgify's March 2026 analysis of AirDNA data shows some standout markets: Abilene, TX posting 82% occupancy and a 14% cap rate on a median purchase price of $201,493. Akron, OH achieving 61% occupancy with annual revenues around $29,612 on homes averaging $139,633. These are outliers, not averages, but they show what's achievable in the right market.

The Regulatory Warning Every STR Investor Needs to Read

We'll be direct here. Short-term rental regulations are the single biggest risk factor that a cash flow calculator cannot measure.

Local governments have banned, capped, or heavily licensed STR activity in dozens of major cities. New York City's Local Law 18 effectively eliminated most Airbnb listings in 2023. Barcelona announced plans to end all tourist apartment licenses by 2028. Several European capitals have imposed strict night limits on STR activity. In the US, cities including San Francisco, New Orleans, Nashville, and others have imposed licensing requirements, permit caps, or zone restrictions that significantly limit where and how you can operate.

Before you run any numbers on a specific property, check:

• Whether your city or municipality allows STRs in that zone
• Whether you need a permit or license (and whether new permits are being issued)
• Whether there are caps on the number of nights you can rent per year
• Whether HOA rules allow short-term rentals (many don't)
• What taxes apply to STR income in your jurisdiction

Regulations can change quickly. A market that's open today may not be open in 18 months. This risk doesn't make STR investing impossible. It makes location research and regulatory due diligence essential before committing capital.

Common Calculation Mistakes

Using gross revenue as your income estimate

You don't keep the nightly rate. You keep the nightly rate minus the platform fee, minus cleaning costs, minus operating expenses, minus the mortgage. Work through every line. That's what the calculator is for.

Applying average occupancy without local research

The US average of 54% (Rabbu/AirDNA, July 2026) is a national figure. Your market may be significantly different. A beach house in a peak-season destination might hit 80% in summer and 20% in winter, averaging 50% annually but with very uneven cash flow. Use local data, not national averages, when making investment decisions.

Forgetting that cleaning fees collected also attract the platform fee

Airbnb's 15.5% fee applies to the full booking subtotal, including cleaning fees you charge guests. If you charge a $100 cleaning fee, Airbnb takes $15.50 of that before paying you. Budget accordingly. Our calculator handles this correctly.

Ignoring seasonality

Annual average occupancy hides monthly variation. A property averaging 54% annually might earn 80% in three peak months and 30% in four slow months. Your mortgage is due every month. Make sure your high-season income is enough to offset the slow months. Monthly cash flow modeling matters more than annual averages for STR.

Comparing STR gross income to long-term rental net income

This produces a false comparison. Always compare net to net. Use our cash flow calculator to run both scenarios on the same property. The difference in net cash flow, not gross income, tells you which strategy is better for that specific property.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do you calculate short-term rental cash flow?

Short-term rental cash flow equals gross monthly revenue minus platform fees, cleaning costs, management fees, utilities, maintenance, insurance, mortgage, and other expenses. Gross monthly revenue is your nightly rate multiplied by 30 days multiplied by your occupancy rate. Use our calculator above to run the full calculation with all cost lines included.

What is a good occupancy rate for a short-term rental?

Rabbu's July 2026 US Airbnb market data puts the US average at 50 to 54%, with 55% or higher considered strong. Some high-demand markets and well-managed properties regularly exceed 70%. Markets facing oversupply or regulation challenges may sit below 40%. Always research your specific market rather than relying on national averages.

How much does Airbnb charge hosts in 2026?

Since December 2025, Airbnb charges most hosts a single 15.5% service fee on the booking subtotal including nightly rate and host-set fees. This replaced the old split-fee model. VRBO charges approximately 8% total. Direct bookings carry no platform fee. The calculator defaults to 15.5% but you can change it to match your platform.

What are typical short-term rental operating expenses?

AvantStay's February 2026 analysis puts total STR operating expenses at 50 to 60% of gross revenue. Cleaning costs consume 10 to 15% of gross revenue. Property management adds 15 to 30% if outsourced. Insurance runs 2 to 3 times a standard landlord policy. These costs are significantly higher than long-term rental expense ratios of 35 to 40%.

How much can you make with a short-term rental?

AirDNA data shows the average US STR host earned approximately $2,408 per month in 2025. But averages hide wide variation. Location, property size, management quality, and pricing strategy all affect results significantly. Run your specific property through our calculator using conservative estimates before making investment decisions.

Is a short-term rental more profitable than a long-term rental?

It depends on the property and the market. STRs can generate higher gross income but carry higher operating costs and more risk. The honest answer requires running both scenarios on the same property. Use our cash flow calculator for the long-term comparison, and the STR calculator on this page for the short-term analysis.

What is breakeven occupancy for a short-term rental?

Breakeven occupancy is the minimum rate needed to cover all costs including mortgage, platform fees, and operating expenses. Our calculator shows this automatically. A lower breakeven gives you more buffer against slow seasons. If your breakeven is 60% and your market averages 54%, you have a problem. If your breakeven is 35% and the market averages 54%, you have meaningful cushion.

Does this calculator work outside the US?

Yes. Enter your nightly rate and expenses in any currency. The formula is identical worldwide. Airbnb's 15.5% fee is its current global standard, though EU hosts should note VAT is added on top in many European countries. Adjust the platform fee field to match your actual situation and research local occupancy data for your market.